Assessing the effect of climate and land use changes on the hydrologic regimes in the upstream of Tajan river basin using SWAT model

Abstract Climate change is the most important challenge in achieving sustainable development. Semi-arid and arid areas (such as Iran) are particularly susceptible to effects of climate on water supply. In this research, effect upstream land use investigated Tajan, a river north Iran. The data regarding were produced via second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) adopted input SWAT hydrologic model under RCP2.6 RCP8.5 for period 2016–2066. results showed that peak streamflow will increase by 4% 5.7% average annual discharges decrease 16% 16.5% from 2016 2066 scenarios, respectively. Besides, different scenarios was four diverse selected represent comprehensive range possible map basin. Land led 8.5–15.8% streamflow, highlighting fact it less effective than streamflow. It could be concluded downstream users basin should adopt strategies cope with water-stressed condition changing climate.